A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
